Forecast for 2024

Predicting the future of any economy is a tricky business, and 2024 appears to be no different. While there are some underlying trends to consider, the specifics can be influenced by various factors throughout the year. Here’s a snapshot of what several experts and publications forecast for Australian finance in 2024:

Overall Economic Forecast

Slow growth

The forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2024 is a mixed bag, with different predictions coming from various sources. The Official Forecast comes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in its November 2023 Statement on Monetary Policy. The RBA forecasts that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow only 2.0% during 2024. This is an improvement on the November 2022 forecast when they suggest that GDP will grow 1.6% in 2024. So, perhaps things have turned a corner.

Inflation

Although expected to come down from 2023 highs, inflation is forecast to come down from a high of over 7.8% in December 2022, to 4.5% in December 2023, and 3.5% by December 2024. Inflation looks like it will remain above the RBA’s target range of 2-3% for some time.

Interest rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the first half of the year, but further increases could occur later, depending on inflation and global economic conditions.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable or even decrease slightly, hovering around the current low levels.

Specific Areas to Watch

Housing market

The Australian housing market in 2024 remains veiled in some uncertainty, as various factors play a complex dance in shaping its trajectory. While a definitive forecast is impossible, here’s a breakdown of what different experts and organisations are expecting:

• Slower growth: The rapid price hikes witnessed in 2023 are unlikely to continue. Most predict a slowdown in price growth, ranging from a modest moderation to a slight decline.
• Regional Variations: Different regions and property types will likely experience diverse outcomes. Capital cities like Sydney and Melbourne might see milder growth or stagnation, while some regional areas with affordability advantages could still attract buyers.
• Interest rates: The RBA’s potential further rate hikes will likely dampen demand and affordability, putting downward pressure on prices.
• Inflation: If inflation remains elevated, it could further erode affordability and consumer confidence, impacting the market.
• Supply and demand: While demand might soften, the existing imbalance between housing supply and demand could still support some price stability.
• Investor activity: The return of investors, if it happens, could inject some life back into the market, but potentially exacerbate affordability concerns.

Specific Predictions

• PropTrack: Forecasts national home price growth between 1.0% and 4.0%.
• Domain: Expects house prices to rise 5-7% across the country, with regional markets potentially performing better.
• Forbes: Anticipates continued growth of 5-7% for houses and units, but warns of “an intricate dance of economic forces” influencing prices.

Key Takeaways

• Prepare for a slower market with less aggressive price movements.
• Different regions and property types will likely experience varied outcomes.
• Stay informed about economic developments and interest rate changes.
• Seek professional advice from financial advisors or real estate agents for tailored guidance. Remember, these are just predictions, and the actual 2024 housing market will depend on how various factors play out. Adaptability and informed decision-making will be crucial for navigating this uncertain landscape.

Stock Market Forecast

Predicting the Australian stock market can be a bit like gazing into a crystal ball, but here’s a glimpse into what experts forecast in 2024:

• Mixed outlook: There’s some optimism for continued decent gains, but also concerns about potential turbulence.Several factors will play a complex role, making it a year for cautious optimism.
• Volatility: Expect more ups and downs compared to the relative stability of 2023. Global economic uncertainties and domestic developments could cause fluctuations.

Factors at Play

• Interest rates: The RBA’s interest rate decisions will remain key. Some predict potential cuts later in 2024, which could boost stock prices, while others warn of possible further hikes.
• Global economy: A global slowdown could negatively impact export-oriented companies and risk appetite.
• Earnings: Corporate earnings growth might slow down due to rising costs and consumer spending moderation.
• Investor sentiment: The mood of domestic and international investors will significantly influence market behavior.

Sector Outlooks

• Resources: Mining stocks could benefit from continued strong commodity prices, especially if the US dollar weakens.
• Technology: Technology stocks could remain volatile, depending on global tech trends and interest rate movements.
• Financials: Bank stocks might underperform due to slower credit growth and potentially lower margins.
• Utilities: Defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare could be attractive in light of economic uncertainties.

Specific Predictions

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): Forecasts a potential upside of 10%, pushing the ASX 200 index towards 8,250 points.

Key Takeaways

• Be prepared for a potentially volatile year with mixed fortunes for different sectors.
• Diversification and a long-term perspective are crucial for weathering market fluctuations.
• Stay informed about economic developments and consult with financial advisors for personalised investment strategies.

Remember, these are just predictions, and the actual performance of the Australian stock market in 2024 will depend on how various factors interact. Vigilance, research, and prudent financial planning will be your best allies in navigating this dynamic landscape.

Retail Spending Forecast

2024 for Australian small businesses is likely to be a year of cautious optimism, marked by a slower economic pace but also potential opportunities for adaptation and growth. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

• Slower growth: Economic growth is expected to slow down compared to 2023, with a potential range of 2-3%. This means customer spending and business investment might be more subdued.
• Tightened budgets: Rising interest rates and slower growth could put pressure on small business finances, requiring careful budgeting and cost management.
• Increased competition: As margins get tighter, competition for both customers and talent is likely to intensify.
• Opportunities for innovation: Businesses that adapt to changing consumer preferences and leverage technology effectively will have the edge.

Key areas to watch

• Labour market: While tight in 2023, the labour market is expected to loosen slightly in 2024. This could ease hiring challenges but also bring pressure on wages.
• Interest rates: RBA rate hikes have already impacted loan costs. Further increases could limit access to capital for small businesses.
• Inflation: Although projected to come down from 2023 highs, inflation could still eat into profits and squeeze household budgets.
• Consumer spending: Be prepared for cautious consumer behavior due to inflation and economic uncertainty.

Positive trends

• Resilience of the Australian economy: Australia’s relatively strong economic position compared to other countries could provide some insulation for small businesses.
• Government support: Government initiatives promoting innovation, skills development, and small business growth could offer opportunities.
• Increased focus on digital adoption: Embracing digital tools and e-commerce can help small businesses reach wider audiences and operate more efficiently.

Tips for small businesses in 2024

• Be adaptable and flexible: Embrace change and stay agile to adjust to changing market conditions and customer needs.
• Focus on cost efficiency: Look for ways to streamline operations, optimise resources, and improve productivity.
• Invest in digital tools: Leverage technology to automate tasks, reach new customers, and improve customer experience.
• Build strong relationships: Nurture relationships with customers, suppliers, and community partners for support and collaboration.
• Seek professional advice: Consult with financial advisors and business experts for tailored guidance and support.

Remember, while challenges lie ahead, 2024 can also be a year of growth and opportunity for Australian small businesses. By staying informed, adapting to changing circumstances, and seizing emerging opportunities, you can position your business for success in the year ahead.

Debt and Household Finance Forecast

2024 for Australian households could be a year of cautiously navigating financial headwinds, but also one with potential bright spots. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

• Squeezed budgets: Rising interest rates, inflation, and potentially lower wage growth will likely tighten household budgets. Be prepared for careful spending and potentially delaying non-essential purchases.
• Savings slowdown: The already low savings rate might decline further, making it crucial to prioritise building or maintaining an emergency fund.
• Debt pressures: Higher interest rates will increase loan repayments, adding pressure to households with significant debt. Consider refinancing options or debt consolidation if possible.
• Varying experiences: The impact will differ based on income levels, household types, and existing financial burdens. Low-income families and those with high debt are likely to face more challenges.

Potential bright spots

• Tax cuts: Proposed tax cuts, if implemented, could offer some relief, especially for middle-income earners.
• Job security: The unemployment rate is expected to remain low, providing some income stability for many households.
• Wage growth: While potentially slower than inflation, some wage growth is still expected, offering some offset to rising costs.
• Housing market stabilisation: After rapid price hikes, the housing market might slow down or even see price reductions in some areas. This could be good news for first-time buyers.

Tips for managing your finances in 2024

• Review your budget: Analyse your spending patterns and identify areas to cut back or optimise.
• Negotiate bills: Contact service providers and try to negotiate lower bills for things like phone, internet, and insurance.
• Seek cost-effective alternatives: Consider cheaper options for groceries, entertainment, and other expenses.
• Boost your income: Explore side hustles or ways to increase your earning potential.
• Seek financial advice: Consult with a financial advisor for personalised guidance and strategies to manage your finances effectively.

Remember, every household is different. Adapt these tips based on your specific circumstances and seek professional advice if needed. While challenges lie ahead, with careful planning and proactive measures, you can navigate the financial landscape of 2024 effectively and potentially even find opportunities for growth and stability.